Hurricane the storm Gains Power As It Moves Towards Jamaica
Cyclone Melissa is forecast to become a infrequent category five cyclone as it veers in the direction of Jamaica, bringing deadly flash flooding and landslides.
The cyclone, which registered winds of up to 195 km/h as of 0600 Greenwich Mean Time, is currently turning north-west in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to reach land by midweek, according to weather experts.
Advisories of blackouts and damage to infrastructure have been announced as Melissa generates up to 76cm of rain and storm surges as high as 4m above normal levels. "Seek shelter now," locals have been advised.
The cyclone is the 13th named storm in this year's Atlantic season, which typically ends in late autumn.
Category Five Cyclone Threat
A category five cyclone is the most powerful category, with sustained winds of at least 252 km/h.
Although the hurricane is set to diminish in strength to a Category 4 cyclone before making landfall on Jamaica, authorities said there was "very little practical difference in the overall impacts" upon reaching the coast, and that the storm will be "equally strong" when it impacts the island.
Critical Preparations
With tropical storm-level wind and rainfall already expected well before it moves across Jamaica's central region - possibly even the capital, Kingston - advisories state that "readiness efforts must be accelerated".
"An extended timeframe of damaging winds and intense precipitation has started and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening sudden floods and numerous mudslides," advised weather authorities.
Jamaican Prime Minister the statesman commented: "I understand that there are many Jamaicans who are anxious, who are deeply troubled, and rightfully so: concern is justified.
"Yet the optimal approach to manage worry and any unease and anxiety is to be prepared."
Locals are being told to fortify their houses with protective bags and plywood sheets, and to stock up on necessary supplies.
Broader Consequences
Alerts are also active for areas in Haiti such as the main city, Port au Prince, the Dominican Republic and Cuba's eastern region, where Melissa is expected to bring analogous consequences by the middle of next week.
Mudslides presently generated by the storm have caused two deaths in Haiti, according to emergency services.
Projected Path
The hurricane is forecast to move across the island nation by Wednesday before moving through the Antillas Mayores and out into the Atlantic.
By the point it reaches Cuba, it is forecast to have diminished to a third-level cyclone.
Climate Context
Although it is hard to connect individual weather events to global warming, scientists say it is causing climate patterns increasingly frequent and more intense.
Increased sea temperatures produce additional humidity in the atmosphere, helping fuel the creation of tropical cyclones.
Prior to the start of the current Atlantic storm period, climate agencies forecast above-normal activity, mentioning heated marine conditions and potential enhanced seasonal rains around West Africa - where hurricanes typically originate.
